Indonesia’s 2024 Presidential Candidates, Who Has the Highest Electability?

The most recent poll on the electability of Indonesia’s presidential candidates for 2024 has been released. Populi Center and Saiful Mujani Research (SMRC) are survey organizations that have issued electability data. Based on the findings, SMRC published a poll titled ‘Evaluation of Presidential Performance and 2024 Presidential Candidate Choices among Critical Voters’ on May 28, 2023.

Ganjar Pranowo, the PDIP presidential candidate, had the best electability in a telephone poll held on May 23-24, 2023.

Ganjar’s electability of 35.9% places him ahead of Gerindra’s presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto, who scored 32.8%, and Anies Paswedan, the presidential candidate of the Coalition for Change for Unity, who received 20.1%. Meanwhile, 11.3% of respondents did not respond.

According to Deni Irvani, SRMC Research Director, Ganjar’s electability increased from 31.1% to 35.9% among critical voters. Prabowo’s percentage increased from 29.7% to 32.8%. Anies’ electability dropped from 29.7% in December 2022 to 20.1% in the most recent poll conducted on May 23-24, 2023.

Deni defined critical voters as those who have greater access to sociopolitical knowledge. This is because they have cell phones and can utilize the internet to learn about and respond to sociopolitical news.

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Populi Center Poll

Meanwhile, the Populi Center issued the most recent survey results on the electability of candidates for next year’s president on May 29, 2023. Prabowo outperforms his nearest rivals, Ganjar and Anies.

From May 4 to 12, 2023, a countrywide survey was conducted. The respondents were drawn from 28 Indonesian provinces, including the new autonomous areas of Central Papua, Southwest Papua, Mountainous Papua, and South Papua.

This survey’s data collecting method was face-to-face interviews with 1,200 respondents chosen using the multistage random sample method, with a margin of error (Mo) of +-2.83% and a confidence level of 95%. The Populi Center survey program was used to conduct the face-to-face interviews.

“The data show that Prabowo Subianto’s electability is increasing.” Prabowo Subianto is the person most likely to be elected president if a presidential election were conducted today, with 22.8% of the vote. Ganjar Pranowo came in second with 21.2% while Anies Baswedan came in third with 13.5%, according to Populi Center researcher Rafif Pamenang Imawan.

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Rafif noted that while looking at the distribution of candidate selections depending on parliamentary parties, Ganjar garnered the highest support from PDIP voters. Furthermore, the majority of Prabowo’s supporters were from the Gerindra Party, Golkar, and PKB.

“When we look at the distribution of presidential candidate choices based on parliamentary party preferences, Ganjar Pranowo received the most support (68.6%) from people who said they would vote for PDIP.”

“When we look at the distribution of presidential candidate choices based on parliamentary party choices, Ganjar Pranowo received the most support from people who said they would vote for PDIP in the 2024 legislative elections, receiving 68.6%.” Meanwhile, Prabowo Subianto has 71.4% Gerindra Party support, 45.8% Golkar Party support, and 39.2% PKB support,” he explained.

Rafif stated that the NasDem Party, Democrat, PKS, and PPP were the three main sources of support for former Minister of Education and Culture Anies Baswedan.

“NasDem Party voters support Anies Baswedan 46.7%, PKS 65.6%, Democrat Party 39.7%, and PPP 38.7%.” PAN voters divided their support 34.5% between Anies Baswedan and Prabowo Subianto,” he said.

Prabowo Subianto’s electability ranks first. Ganjar and Anies occupy the second and third positions.

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Y Publica Poll

Prabowo Subianto remains the most electable candidate, followed by Ganjar Pranowo and Anies Baswedan. The Y-Publica survey showed this information. Prabowo now leads the polls with 25.3% of the vote, followed by Ganjar with 24%. Meanwhile, Anies Baswedan retains third place with 17.2% electability.

“Prabowo dethroned Ganjar, who had been in a superior position for the past year, while Anies is far behind in third place,” Y-Publica Executive Director Rudi Hartono stated on January 6, 2023.

According to Rudi, Ganjar’s position was displaced as a result of Indonesia’s decision not to host the U-20 World Cup. Ganjar faced public outrage, which led to a drop in electability in early April 2023.

Ganjar’s sinking electability was held back marginally by PDIP’s decision to accelerate the declaration of Ganjar’s candidacy. Prabowo, on the other hand, continued to strengthen and close the deficit until he ultimately overtook Ganjar.